Benue State University, Makurdi

An Assessment of the Determinants of Japa Syndrome in Nigeria

James Vaachia Ikyaator, Philip Terhemen Abachi and Naomi Onyeje Doki

Abstract

This study examined how some governance and non-governance indicators have a bearing on the japa syndrome in Nigeria using annual data from the World Bank, the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) and Nigeria Bureau of Statistics (NBS) from 1996 to 2021. Having found the variables to be free from unit root problems using the Augmented Dickey-Fuller Test and bounds test for long run relationship, both the short run and long run relationships were estimated using the Autoregressive Distributed Lag modeling approach. Variables of interest were Net Migration as a proxy for japa which is a dependent variable and the explanatory variables were population of Nigeria, youth unemployment rate, inflation rate, political stability and absence of violence terrorism index and government effectiveness index. The short run model revealed that the lag values of net migration have positive significant influence on the current levels of japa. Equally, inflation was found as a significant predictor of japa in the short run. In the long run, it was found that, all the explanatory variables constitute serious push factors for japa in Nigeria except for political stability index which has a negative and significant influence on japa. It recommended among other things that, the government should put necessary policies in place to control inflation, population growth and youth unemployment in Nigeria.

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