Benue State University, Makurdi

Climate Change and Herders-Farmers Conflict as Drivers of Food Security in Nigeria: Toda-Yamamoto-Dolado-Lutkepohl Approach.

Emmanuel Umale Abbah, Naomi Onyeje Doki and Jerome Terhemba Andohol

Abstract

This research examined climate change and herders-farmers conflict as drivers of food security in Nigeria within the period 1991-2021 using the vector error correction methodology (VECM) and the Toda-Yamamoto-Dolado-Lutkepohl methodology. Climate change was proxied by carbon dioxide equivalent (CO2e), food security was proxied by agricultural output (AQ), and herders-farmers conflict (HFC) was dummied. The findings revealed that herders–farmers conflict (HFC) is the principal driver of food security both in the short run and in the long run and further transmits positively to agricultural output (AQ) in the long run within the study period. Climate change (CO2e) negatively influences agricultural output (AQ) both in the short run and in the long run. There is no evidence of one-on-one causality between herders-farmers conflict (HFC) and climate change (CO2e). However, climate change (CO2e) and other variables of interest employed in this study jointly caused herders-farmers conflict (HFC). The study recommends that the creation of ranches or grazing reserves for cattle farming in the country is key and will boost agricultural productivity. At all levels, governments should make sincere and concerted efforts to broker peace between herders and farmers and encourage the settlement of disputes through dialogue. Finally, it is crucial to constantly sensitize herders and farmers on the need for peaceful coexistence by agents of government, religious, and traditional institutions in the country.

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